Who's betting on “Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $109K traded all time
- Held now
- $32K by 107 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 65 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 42 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
Who holds it
107 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is DualDelta, with $49 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 208 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $24K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4 on Yes.
- Holders
- 65
- Money on it
- $259
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 1 · $4
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $32K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$259 on it
- 1DualDelta34% won of 208 · noise$49+$41K lifetime
- 2Whaddaheck33% won of 3$35+$240 lifetime
- 3Tpezaske46% won of 26 · noise$27+$10K lifetime
- 4sd233356% won of 75$25−$4.3K lifetime
- 5No-risk-no-bisc0% won of 69$21−$418 lifetime
No$32K on it
- 1TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$24K+$1.8M lifetime
- 20xa894…53da83% won of 132 · balanced$4.5K+$9.1K lifetime
- 3KTKK74% won of 202 · whale$2.0K+$5.4K lifetime
- 4freemath83% won of 35 · balanced$782+$616 lifetime
- 5vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$491+$170K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
4 more- 5.5%$217K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 5.0%$168K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- 10.0%$54K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 7.0%$38K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$952K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?"?
107 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is DualDelta, with $49 on it, $41K lifetime profit over 208 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $24K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.