Who's betting on “Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 48 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $168K traded all time
- Held now
- $26K by 193 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 33% 88 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 105 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $168K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
33% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points. A week ago, No by 49 points.
Who holds it
193 wallets hold a position worth $26K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 193 of them. The largest Yes holder is singaporesling, with $1.1K on it, $153K lifetime loss over 210 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is pako, with $8.1K on it, $386K lifetime profit over 383 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 88
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 105
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.1K on it
- 1singaporesling66% won of 210$1.1K−$153K lifetime
- 2gummy-usb43% won of 86 · noise$144+$3.6K lifetime
- 3Tpezaske46% won of 26 · noise$121+$10K lifetime
- 4CompulsiveGambler69% won of 1,049 · whale$119+$74K lifetime
- 5MrDraco0% won of 3$102−$1.9K lifetime
No$23K on it
- 1pako81% won of 383 · whale$8.1K+$386K lifetime
- 2Magamyman73% won of 97 · whale$3.4K+$809K lifetime
- 3vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$1.6K+$170K lifetime
- 4jadebasilisk55% won of 181 · whale$1.4K+$39K lifetime
- 5TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$1.1K+$1.8M lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
4 more- 5.5%$217K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 6.0%$109K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 10.0%$54K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 7.0%$38K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$950K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?"?
193 wallets hold a position worth $26K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 193 of them. The largest Yes holder is singaporesling, with $1.1K on it, $153K lifetime loss over 210 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is pako, with $8.1K on it, $386K lifetime profit over 383 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $168K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
33% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points. A week ago, No by 49 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.