Who's betting on “Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $217K traded all time
- Held now
- $19K by 126 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 75% 74 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 52 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $217K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
75% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
Who holds it
126 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is Whaddaheck, with $121 on it, $240 lifetime profit over 3 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Magamyman, with $5.9K on it, $809K lifetime profit over 97 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $325
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$325 on it
- 1Whaddaheck33% won of 3$121+$240 lifetime
- 2Tpezaske46% won of 26 · noise$39+$10K lifetime
- 3MrDraco0% won of 3$23−$1.9K lifetime
- 4koninginhetuniverse63% won of 2,122 · whale$18+$5.2K lifetime
- 5Joebama56% won of 192$13−$2.1K lifetime
No$18K on it
- 1Magamyman73% won of 97 · whale$5.9K+$809K lifetime
- 20xa894…53da83% won of 132 · balanced$4.4K+$9.1K lifetime
- 3TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$2.5K+$1.8M lifetime
- 4KTKK74% won of 202 · whale$2.0K+$5.4K lifetime
- 5vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$1.1K+$170K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
4 more- 5.0%$168K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- 6.0%$109K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 10.0%$54K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 7.0%$38K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$952K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?"?
126 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is Whaddaheck, with $121 on it, $240 lifetime profit over 3 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Magamyman, with $5.9K on it, $809K lifetime profit over 97 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $217K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
75% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.