Who's betting on “Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 38 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $124K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.1K by 73 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 46% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
46% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
Who holds it
73 wallets hold a position worth $7.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is usuch, with $110 on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 200 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $3.6K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $28 on Yes.
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $235
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
- Snipers
- 1 · $28
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $6.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$235 on it
- 1usuch22% won of 200$110−$2.3K lifetime
- 2David2847% won of 108 · noise$34+$12K lifetime
- 3singularityman76% won of 360 · sniper$28+$78K lifetime
- 4zatagi84% won of 50 · balanced$18+$597 lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,759 · noise$13+$27K lifetime
No$6.9K on it
- 1Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$3.6K+$1.5M lifetime
- 2mombil62% won of 1,063 · whale$1.0K+$502K lifetime
- 3banestow66% won of 339$581−$8.4K lifetime
- 4pakukudolphi45% won of 326 · noise$237+$136K lifetime
- 5Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$220+$154K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?"?
73 wallets hold a position worth $7.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 73 of them. The largest Yes holder is usuch, with $110 on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 200 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $3.6K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 38 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.