Who's betting on “Will Trump say "Happy Halloween" this week?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 50 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $150 traded all time
- Held now
- $100 by 3 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 50% 2 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 1 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 56¢ and No at 45¢, a 56% implied chance of Yes. $150 has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
The smart money
50% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 50 points.
Who holds it
3 wallets hold a position worth $100 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 3 of them. The largest Yes holder is weather-vane, with $28 on it, $270 lifetime loss over 249 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is Jamieeee, with $45 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 248 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 2
- Money on it
- $56
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
- Holders
- 1
- Money on it
- $45
- Holders' win rate
- 86%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$56 on it
- 1weather-vane86% won of 249$28−$270 lifetime
- 2Quarrelsome-Branch75% won of 657 · whale$28+$111K lifetime
No$45 on it
- 1Jamieeee86% won of 248 · balanced$45+$3.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will Trump say this week? (October 26 - November 1)
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- EasterYes 26%No 74%Smart money split
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- Pirate$606 vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
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- Ceasefire / Uranium$299 vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Moon$217 vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
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- Genius / Elon / Musk$88 vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump say "Happy Halloween" this week?"?
3 wallets hold a position worth $100 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 3 of them. The largest Yes holder is weather-vane, with $28 on it, $270 lifetime loss over 249 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is Jamieeee, with $45 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 248 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump say "Happy Halloween" this week?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 56¢ and No at 45¢, a 56% implied chance of Yes. $150 has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 2, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 2, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.