Who's betting on “Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?”?
Weather · $65K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 3¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
99% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
25 wallets hold a position worth $909 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is fElon, with $441 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 639 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is buoys, with $8 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won).
- Smart money share
- 99%
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $887
- Holders' winrate
- 83%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $23
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| fElonwhale | $441 | +$10K | 88% of 639 |
| Y4n4polbalanced | $237 | +$529 | 72% of 203 |
| TheBigMusclewhale | $127 | +$2.0K | 87% of 212 |
| i.newtonbalanced | $47 | +$2.3K | 88% of 243 |
| LosingEverything12312312323123balanced | $23 | +$1.6K | 60% of 866 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| buoyswhale | $8 | +$83K | 46% of 1,183 |
| AJSVwhale | $4 | +$218K | 41% of 102,700 |
| 0xab80…af18balanced | $3 | +$2.4K | 70% of 203 |
| Hakei.whale | $2 | +$95K | 71% of 1,025 |
| Numitus1994 | $1 | -$26K | 48% of 12,923 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑10k$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- ↑12.5k$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- ↑5k$339K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- ↑7.5k$219K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: No
- ↑6.5k$60K vol.Yes 63%No 37%Smart money: Yes
- ↑6k$23K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: No
- ↑4k$249K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$833K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$789K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$333K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?$209K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$148K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
25 wallets hold a position worth $909 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is fElon, with $441 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 639 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is buoys, with $8 on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 3¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
99% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.