Who's betting on “10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?”?
Weather · $833K volume · Ends February 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $833K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
29% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 57 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
1,125 wallets hold a position worth $93K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,125 of them. The largest Yes holder is vk7, with $224 on it, $66K lifetime loss over 25 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $29K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
- Smart money share
- 29%
- Holders
- 125
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $91K
- Holders' winrate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| vk7 | $224 | -$66K | 48% of 25 |
| 589985 | $205 | -$4.5K | 0% of 7 |
| pedro4prezbalanced | $140 | +$247 | 78% of 111 |
| packling | $108 | -$578 | 83% of 6 |
| Brother357whale | $87 | +$48K | 79% of 1,052 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $29K | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04whale | $14K | +$146K | 92% of 1,008 |
| BeNwhale | $11K | +$35K | 69% of 1,001 |
| VegemiteLoverwhale | $3.1K | +$1.1K | 93% of 265 |
| kgg001 | $2.6K | -$6.1K | 90% of 41 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?
1,125 wallets hold a position worth $93K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,125 of them. The largest Yes holder is vk7, with $224 on it, $66K lifetime loss over 25 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $29K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $833K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 57 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.