Who's betting on “Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?”?
Weather · $360K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $360K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
43% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
102 wallets hold a position worth $6.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 102 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ahoetah, with $94 on it, $0 lifetime profit over 3 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is gmeowcl, with $2.5K on it, $916 lifetime loss over 62 markets (73% won).
- Smart money share
- 43%
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $306
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 54%
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $5.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ahoetah | $94 | +$0 | 67% of 3 |
| Morphers | $64 | -$65 | 100% of 2 |
| smap | $24 | -$2.9K | 56% of 57 |
| Cold070 | $20 | -$3.4K | 41% of 200 |
| 0x703b…2320 | $15 | -$138 | 25% of 170 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gmeowcl | $2.5K | -$916 | 73% of 62 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $612 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $564 | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| fElonwhale | $369 | +$10K | 88% of 639 |
| Gaujmalietisgrinder | $318 | +$4.2K | 96% of 212 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑10k$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- ↑5k$339K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- ↑7.5k$219K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: No
- ↑4.75k$65K vol.Yes 98%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- ↑6.5k$60K vol.Yes 63%No 38%Smart money: Yes
- ↑6k$23K vol.Yes 81%No 19%Smart money: No
- ↑4k$249K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$833K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$789K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$333K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Natural Disaster in 2026?$251K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money split
- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?$209K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
102 wallets hold a position worth $6.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 102 of them. The largest Yes holder is Ahoetah, with $94 on it, $0 lifetime profit over 3 markets (67% won). The largest No holder is gmeowcl, with $2.5K on it, $916 lifetime loss over 62 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $360K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
43% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.