Who's betting on “Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?”?
Weather · $249K volume · Closed · Updated October 10, 2026
This market closed on October 10, 2026 and resolved Yes. $249K has been traded on it.
51% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
269 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 269 of them.
- Smart money share
- 51%
- Holders
- 168
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $10
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑10k$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- ↑12.5k$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- ↑5k$339K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- ↑7.5k$219K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: No
- ↑4.75k$65K vol.Yes 98%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- ↑6.5k$60K vol.Yes 63%No 37%Smart money: Yes
- ↑6k$23K vol.Yes 82%No 19%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$833K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$789K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$333K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?$209K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$148K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
269 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 269 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?"?
This market closed on October 10, 2026 and resolved Yes. $249K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 10, 2026 and resolved Yes. $249K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.