Who's betting on “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?”?
Weather · $333K volume · Ends February 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $333K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
14% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 71 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 71 points. A week ago, No by 77 points.
355 wallets hold a position worth $55K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x79a1…34b5, with $532 on it, $3.1K lifetime loss over 9 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $7.2K on it, $105K lifetime profit over 1,139 markets (74% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $394 on No.
- Smart money share
- 14%
- Holders
- 174
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 40%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86%
- Holders
- 181
- Money on it
- $53K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 3 · $394
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x79a1…34b5 | $532 | -$3.1K | 22% of 9 |
| 589985 | $195 | -$4.5K | 0% of 7 |
| xtyche | $127 | -$445 | 53% of 188 |
| TiahuraKing | $97 | -$20 | 100% of 1 |
| JLLEE91 | $95 | -$199 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEGENKHANwhale | $7.2K | +$105K | 74% of 1,139 |
| DegenerateJanetwhale | $4.1K | +$27K | 83% of 672 |
| UnderwriterGCRwhale | $3.6K | +$18K | 85% of 203 |
| gopfan2whale | $3.5K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758 | $2.7K | -$7.0K | 50% of 604 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?
355 wallets hold a position worth $55K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x79a1…34b5, with $532 on it, $3.1K lifetime loss over 9 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $7.2K on it, $105K lifetime profit over 1,139 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $333K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
14% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 71 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 71 points. A week ago, No by 77 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.