Who's betting on “Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?”?
Weather · $276K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $276K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
37% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 5 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
99 wallets hold a position worth $318 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is m5297, with $32 on it, $597 lifetime loss over 4 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $38 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 37%
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $118
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 42%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $201
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| m5297 | $32 | -$597 | 0% of 4 |
| 0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934 | $17 | +$206 | 100% of 133 |
| blablabelnoise | $10 | +$284 | 47% of 206 |
| 0x65165432cC0ce687b28a5Cd3c8993D1a1Aa57B7C-1769239131288 | $7 | -$1.4K | 100% of 200 |
| 0x19b87FaD1d000FBcBB8253513FdeB50a36F30C6C-1774522622992 | $4 | -$275 | 43% of 30 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $38 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| LBZero | $30 | -$26K | 47% of 1,012 |
| NoMoney | $30 | -$126 | 96% of 90 |
| qunnng | $20 | -$29 | 93% of 85 |
| cicicungrinder | $20 | +$25 | 89% of 188 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- 0$501K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- 2$46K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 4$36K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 3$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Who's betting on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?"?
99 wallets hold a position worth $318 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is m5297, with $32 on it, $597 lifetime loss over 4 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $38 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $276K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
37% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 5 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.