Who's betting on “Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?”?
Weather · $501K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 23, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $501K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
89% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 41 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
163 wallets hold a position worth $7.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 163 of them. The largest Yes holder is LieutenantMiloMinderbinder, with $2.1K on it, $11K lifetime profit over 233 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is EdwardBryant6165, with $1.3K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 195 markets (43% won).
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 48%
- Holders
- 62
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LieutenantMiloMinderbinderwhale | $2.1K | +$11K | 66% of 233 |
| 0x06d898dd11C4c1ffcA1F91c2c47f6E379b4C9446-1776245316934 | $465 | +$206 | 100% of 133 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $388 | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| DEGENKHANwhale | $282 | +$105K | 74% of 1,139 |
| varch01 | $140 | -$44K | 69% of 1,121 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| EdwardBryant6165 | $1.3K | -$1.6K | 43% of 195 |
| ElizabethCohen6789balanced | $980 | +$670 | 49% of 200 |
| zk1984balanced | $144 | +$6.6K | 75% of 218 |
| tttt123whale | $144 | +$14K | 74% of 212 |
| 5atkawhale | $131 | +$10.0K | 59% of 224 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- 5+$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 2$46K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 4$36K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 3$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Who's betting on How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?"?
163 wallets hold a position worth $7.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 163 of them. The largest Yes holder is LieutenantMiloMinderbinder, with $2.1K on it, $11K lifetime profit over 233 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is EdwardBryant6165, with $1.3K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 195 markets (43% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $501K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 42 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 41 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.