Who's betting on “Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?”?
Weather · $148K volume · Ends April 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $148K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
28% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 62 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 62 points. A week ago, No by 65 points.
189 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 189 of them. The largest Yes holder is EyeSaw, with $412 on it, $253 lifetime loss over 70 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $6.3K on it, $105K lifetime profit over 1,139 markets (74% won).
- Smart money share
- 28%
- Holders
- 105
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 89%
- Holders
- 84
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| EyeSaw | $412 | -$253 | 33% of 70 |
| paulco | $204 | +$410 | 100% of 7 |
| THEKROWN | $91 | -$4.9K | - |
| 0x0213b9F55EE49ba498978869374024E90229Fa78-1764785561568 | $80 | -$15 | 0% of 1 |
| 0x6e52…99d6 | $79 | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEGENKHANwhale | $6.3K | +$105K | 74% of 1,139 |
| Mustafalafelwhale | $3.7K | +$46K | 80% of 271 |
| 0xDf273e0fE72a613b27de588aaA5237F3B76ae6E4-1773050216221balanced | $2.8K | +$4.5K | 77% of 232 |
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $944 | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $572 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,945 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$833K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$789K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$339K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$333K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?"?
189 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 189 of them. The largest Yes holder is EyeSaw, with $412 on it, $253 lifetime loss over 70 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $6.3K on it, $105K lifetime profit over 1,139 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $148K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
28% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 62 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 62 points. A week ago, No by 65 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.