Who's betting on “Natural Disaster in 2026?”?
Weather · $251K volume · Ends March 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $251K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
35% of the money on Yes and 31% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
458 wallets hold a position worth $24K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 457 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x79a1…34b5, with $524 on it, $3.1K lifetime loss over 9 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is zin51p, with $7.9K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2 on No.
- Smart money share
- 35%
- Holders
- 343
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 50%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 31%
- Holders
- 115
- Money on it
- $22K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x79a1…34b5 | $524 | -$3.1K | 22% of 9 |
| xor7 | $141 | -$1.8K | 27% of 15 |
| canopgdsapfsdangsdfa | $116 | -$890 | 91% of 88 |
| atomicannienoise | $116 | +$6.8K | 31% of 202 |
| goatbossbalanced | $115 | +$1.0K | 69% of 42 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| zin51p | $7.9K | +$0 | - |
| usurper55 | $2.0K | -$17K | 70% of 87 |
| ourdemocracy2whale | $2.0K | +$6.6K | 79% of 550 |
| 0x6F744ffd7AE68Ad2A53Ca4283414C4a19345A597-1766405827425 | $1.6K | -$215 | 90% of 200 |
| johndoezwhale | $895 | +$127K | 69% of 150 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$833K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$789K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?$352K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$339K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$333K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Natural Disaster in 2026?"?
458 wallets hold a position worth $24K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 457 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x79a1…34b5, with $524 on it, $3.1K lifetime loss over 9 markets (22% won). The largest No holder is zin51p, with $7.9K on it, $0 lifetime profit.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Natural Disaster in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $251K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 31% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.