Who's betting on “Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 52 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $79 by 51 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 42% 6 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 93 points.
Who holds it
51 wallets hold a position worth $79 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is vinii, with $3 on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $40 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 49,325 markets (46% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $10
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 6
- Money on it
- $69
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10 on it
- 1vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$3+$170K lifetime
- 2Crypto-Well78% won of 386 · whale$2+$5.4K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$1+$28K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$1+$254K lifetime
- 5ACara66% won of 370 · whale$0+$45K lifetime
No$69 on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,325$40−$52K lifetime
- 2Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,136 · whale$29+$560 lifetime
- 3haveagoodday24% won of 22,776 · noise$0+$23K lifetime
- 40x525e…0b7366% won of 324$0−$3.2M lifetime
- 5aHjCz29% won of 48,819 · noise$0+$674K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US economic state at the end of 2026?
3 more- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)$55K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$47K vol.Yes 95%No 5%Smart money: Yes
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 77%No 24%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?"?
51 wallets hold a position worth $79 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 51 of them. The largest Yes holder is vinii, with $3 on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $40 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 49,325 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 52 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 93 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.