Who's betting on “Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 86% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $55K traded all time
- Held now
- $828 by 122 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 92 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 86% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
Who holds it
122 wallets hold a position worth $828 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is perfectnostalgia, with $57 on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is TouchDownThana, with $241 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 225 markets (46% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Holders
- 92
- Money on it
- $268
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $560
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$268 on it
- 1perfectnostalgia52% won of 932 · whale$57+$153K lifetime
- 2whispercatalyst49% won of 2,931$38−$5.6K lifetime
- 3macrosteaks64% won of 2,637$25−$8.2K lifetime
- 40xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$20+$61K lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$17+$829K lifetime
No$560 on it
- 1TouchDownThana46% won of 225 · noise$241+$16K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$161+$335K lifetime
- 3peepeepooppoop64% won of 1,566 · whale$70+$33K lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,325$39−$52K lifetime
- 5Onswaggie45% won of 232$10−$375 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in US economic state at the end of 2026?
3 more- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$47K vol.Yes 95%No 5%Smart money: Yes
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 77%No 24%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?"?
122 wallets hold a position worth $828 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 122 of them. The largest Yes holder is perfectnostalgia, with $57 on it, $153K lifetime profit over 932 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is TouchDownThana, with $241 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 225 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $55K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.