Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 68 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $162 by 44 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 28 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 68 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 68 points. A week ago, No by 73 points.
Who holds it
44 wallets hold a position worth $162 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is wing1234, with $66 on it, $2.7K lifetime loss over 218 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is tiredstudent445, with $49 on it, $11 lifetime profit over 21 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $106
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $56
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$106 on it
- 1wing123464% won of 218$66−$2.7K lifetime
- 20x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$9+$127K lifetime
- 3b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,362 · whale$9+$22K lifetime
- 4Wegamble77764% won of 14$4+$12 lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$3+$255K lifetime
No$56 on it
- 1tiredstudent44586% won of 21$49+$11 lifetime
- 2i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$5+$17K lifetime
- 3jql-ml-pred-v29c7j72% won of 116$1−$158 lifetime
- 4mustbethewater45% won of 27,438 · whale$0+$74K lifetime
- 5graynotebook1927% won of 24,292 · noise$0+$76K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
6 more- Democrats 0-2%$23K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Democrats 2-4%$21K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Democrats 6-8%$18K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Democrats 8-10%$18K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: No
- Democrats 4-6%$14K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Democrats 10-12%$12K vol.Yes 23%No 78%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?"?
44 wallets hold a position worth $162 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is wing1234, with $66 on it, $2.7K lifetime loss over 218 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is tiredstudent445, with $49 on it, $11 lifetime profit over 21 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 68 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 68 points. A week ago, No by 73 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.