Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 45 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
Who holds it
45 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is RadioCCOD, with $405 on it, $9.4K lifetime profit over 208 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $232 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won).
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $399
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.2K on it
- 1RadioCCOD38% won of 208 · noise$405+$9.4K lifetime
- 2GayPride80% won of 674 · whale$206+$655K lifetime
- 3andy2939% won of 581 · noise$202+$64K lifetime
- 4SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$76+$48K lifetime
- 5buyrightbake69% won of 203 · whale$67+$16K lifetime
No$399 on it
- 10x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$232+$129K lifetime
- 2varch0168% won of 1,164$78−$45K lifetime
- 3Spectrum76% won of 489 · whale$47+$9.0K lifetime
- 4SeanEleven56% won of 375$24−$2.2K lifetime
- 5ktv.test78% won of 157$13−$462 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
6 more- Republicans 2-4%$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Democrats 0-2%$23K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Democrats 2-4%$21K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Democrats 6-8%$18K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Democrats 8-10%$18K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: No
- Democrats 4-6%$14K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?"?
45 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is RadioCCOD, with $405 on it, $9.4K lifetime profit over 208 markets (38% won). The largest No holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $232 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.