Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Smart money leans No: 63% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $50K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 93 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 27% 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
27% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 65 points. A week ago, No by 64 points.
Who holds it
93 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tuoppias, with $298 on it, $400 lifetime loss over 36 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $469 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won).
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1Tuoppias28% won of 36$298−$400 lifetime
- 2Agyapro87% won of 223$245−$323 lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,167 · noise$127+$254K lifetime
- 4FrankyFourFingers69% won of 264$120−$7.0K lifetime
- 5chickendinner6946% won of 68$107−$1.3K lifetime
No$1.9K on it
- 10xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$469+$334K lifetime
- 2andy2939% won of 581 · noise$424+$64K lifetime
- 3SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,544$410−$8.5K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith51% won of 53,556$170−$378K lifetime
- 5Valen962% won of 900 · whale$75+$231K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
9 more- 220-224$65K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Below 190$64K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- 195-199$39K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- 230+$33K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 200-204$30K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- 225-229$27K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 190-194$21K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money split
- 210-214$19K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- 215-219$17K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
93 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tuoppias, with $298 on it, $400 lifetime loss over 36 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $469 on it, $334K lifetime profit over 12,148 markets (23% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
27% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 65 points. A week ago, No by 64 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.