Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $64K traded all time
- Held now
- $29K by 181 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 103 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 75 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
Who holds it
181 wallets hold a position worth $29K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 178 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $2.9K on it, $819K lifetime profit over 1,128 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is PetuniaPettigrew, with $4.3K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 8 markets (88% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $55 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.8K on No.
- Holders
- 105
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 1 · $55
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.8K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$11K on it
- 1RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$2.9K+$819K lifetime
- 2supersmard60% won of 116 · whale$1.4K+$80K lifetime
- 3HuberH - 3810129% won of 200 · noise$1.3K+$8.8K lifetime
- 4lava-lava47% won of 1,655 · whale$744+$1.2M lifetime
- 5ocpna62% won of 269 · balanced$482+$24K lifetime
No$18K on it
- 1PetuniaPettigrew88% won of 8$4.3K+$28K lifetime
- 2singularityman76% won of 360 · sniper$1.8K+$78K lifetime
- 3BeneGesseritVoice69% won of 1,072 · whale$1.4K+$115K lifetime
- 4littlebird55% won of 149$1.2K−$42K lifetime
- 5GUINESS12370% won of 547$1.0K−$59K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
9 more- 220-224$65K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- 205-209$50K vol.Yes 15%No 85%Smart money: No
- 195-199$39K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- 230+$33K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 200-204$30K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- 225-229$27K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 190-194$21K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money split
- 210-214$19K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- 215-219$17K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
181 wallets hold a position worth $29K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 178 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $2.9K on it, $819K lifetime profit over 1,128 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is PetuniaPettigrew, with $4.3K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 8 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.