Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $33K traded all time
- Held now
- $146 by 67 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 59 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 44% 8 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
Who holds it
67 wallets hold a position worth $146 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $3 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 9,618 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is antiochossaschauder, with $55 on it, $12 lifetime profit over 26 markets (77% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $21
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 8
- Money on it
- $125
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$21 on it
- 10x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$3+$127K lifetime
- 2wing123464% won of 218$3−$2.7K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$2+$819K lifetime
- 4LR171% won of 216 · whale$2+$13K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,759 · noise$1+$27K lifetime
No$125 on it
- 1antiochossaschauder77% won of 26 · balanced$55+$12 lifetime
- 2littlebird55% won of 149$44−$42K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 48,939$20−$50K lifetime
- 40x7b82CeBa10EB8F06a314A8d84bf6813957198d9F-1767456815278100% won of 259$5−$136 lifetime
- 5Pjchougule - 132681% won of 257$1−$557 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
9 more- 220-224$65K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Below 190$64K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- 205-209$50K vol.Yes 15%No 85%Smart money: No
- 195-199$39K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- 200-204$30K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- 225-229$27K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 190-194$21K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money split
- 210-214$19K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
- 215-219$17K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
67 wallets hold a position worth $146 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $3 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 9,618 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is antiochossaschauder, with $55 on it, $12 lifetime profit over 26 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.