Who's betting on “Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 4.00 to 4.99 ft by November 30?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 60 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.3K by 42 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 28 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 13% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 2, 2026.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 13% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 61 points.
Who holds it
42 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 42 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $129 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x14a1…9912, with $496 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 2,906 markets (2% won).
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $575
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $675
- Holders' win rate
- 14%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$575 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$129+$254K lifetime
- 2Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$112+$54K lifetime
- 30xf51b…ca1b47% won of 1,884 · whale$52+$10K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,315 · whale$49+$64K lifetime
- 5tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$45−$217K lifetime
No$675 on it
- 10x14a1…99122% won of 2,906$496−$15K lifetime
- 2dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$71+$29K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,301$45−$52K lifetime
- 4PMWolf47% won of 671$15−$776 lifetime
- 5FortunaFelix40% won of 1,235$15−$2.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?
2 more- 6.00 ft or more$15K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: Yes
- 5.00 to 5.99 ft$15K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 4.00 to 4.99 ft by November 30?"?
42 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 42 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $129 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0x14a1…9912, with $496 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 2,906 markets (2% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 4.00 to 4.99 ft by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 2, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 13% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 61 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 2, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.