Who's betting on “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?”?
Economy · $101K volume · Ends January 28, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $101K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 28, 2027.
53% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
68 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $221 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is 38791873984189, with $99 on it, $192K lifetime profit over 73,352 markets (45% won).
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76% ▼ 18 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $181
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | $221 | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $171 | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| bigdickprick | $110 | -$41K | 44% of 32 |
| melonmanmwhale | $110 | +$51K | 59% of 810 |
| jozeslemsekwhale | $108 | +$2.5K | 61% of 375 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38791873984189whale | $99 | +$192K | 45% of 73,352 |
| Oss-900 | $30 | -$193 | 55% of 44 |
| alboun | $10 | -$79 | 82% of 22 |
| xiongri0323 | $10 | +$6 | 33% of 6 |
| chuifengpashan | $10 | +$5 | 17% of 6 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in January?
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 77%No 24%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?
68 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $221 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is 38791873984189, with $99 on it, $192K lifetime profit over 73,352 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $101K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 28, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 28, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.