Who's betting on “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?”?
Economy · $126K volume · Ends January 28, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $126K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 28, 2027.
49% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
117 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 117 of them. The largest Yes holder is RektCitys, with $202 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 90 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is QMG-CORE, with $1.0K on it, $87K lifetime profit over 1,173 markets (73% won).
- Smart money share
- 49% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $909
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 48% ▲ 11 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RektCitys | $202 | -$15K | 27% of 90 |
| Donkovwhale | $146 | +$72K | 71% of 255 |
| MassivelyBroken | $52 | -$53 | 75% of 160 |
| jozeslemsekwhale | $51 | +$2.5K | 61% of 375 |
| polio123whale | $35 | +$6.7K | 51% of 210 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| QMG-COREwhale | $1.0K | +$87K | 73% of 1,173 |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | $523 | -$3.5M | 43% of 2,405 |
| bluemangroup | $396 | -$798 | 63% of 93 |
| nigiri99 | $186 | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,624 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $67 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed Decision in January?
Other big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$18M vol.Yes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$14M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$11M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?$9.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.1M vol.Yes 75%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 75%No 25%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?
117 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 117 of them. The largest Yes holder is RektCitys, with $202 on it, $15K lifetime loss over 90 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is QMG-CORE, with $1.0K on it, $87K lifetime profit over 1,173 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $126K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 28, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
49% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 28, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.