Who's betting on “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $155K traded all time
- Held now
- $27K by 144 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 96 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 52% 48 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
Who holds it
144 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 144 of them. The largest Yes holder is Roflan-ludoman, with $3.5K on it, $202K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $6.3K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,080 markets (46% won).
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$12K on it
- 1Roflan-ludoman57% won of 1,034 · whale$3.5K+$202K lifetime
- 2balthazar53% won of 52,375 · whale$1.8K+$1.2M lifetime
- 3art36986483% won of 23$1.2K−$13K lifetime
- 4gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$965+$6.7K lifetime
- 5pieped59% won of 206 · whale$605+$15K lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,080$6.3K−$49K lifetime
- 2HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$2.9K+$179K lifetime
- 3flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$1.4K+$2.3K lifetime
- 4Martinus-50% won of 131 · balanced$1.2K+$521 lifetime
- 5bZk0Uo70% won of 900 · whale$543+$132 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
4 more- Hike–Pause–Hike$140K vol.Yes 79%No 22%Smart money: Yes
- Other$35K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Hike–Hike–Hike$113K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Hike–Hike–Pause$70K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$942K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
144 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 144 of them. The largest Yes holder is Roflan-ludoman, with $3.5K on it, $202K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $6.3K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,080 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 20¢ and No at 80¢, an 80% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.