Who's betting on “Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $35K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.0K by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 59% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
The smart money
59% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $189 on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,228 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0xF80E74bC34e0C1BE6D4352D6eDEBB710E6602af8-1720119167013, with $1.1K on it, $4.6K lifetime profit over 128 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $585
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$585 on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,228$189−$49K lifetime
- 2HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$156+$179K lifetime
- 3balthazar53% won of 52,493 · whale$63+$1.2M lifetime
- 4ZD-ELO-M398% won of 124 · balanced$41+$1.5K lifetime
- 5Ezzwwdno record yet$25−$200 lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 10xF80E74bC34e0C1BE6D4352D6eDEBB710E6602af8-172011916701364% won of 128 · balanced$1.1K+$4.6K lifetime
- 2Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$182+$570 lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$118+$334K lifetime
- 4S88872% won of 375 · whale$48+$14K lifetime
- 5AlvisLi-FutureTopInvestor88% won of 694$2−$377 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
4 more- Hike–Pause–Pause$155K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Hike–Pause–Hike$140K vol.Yes 79%No 22%Smart money: Yes
- Hike–Hike–Hike$113K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Hike–Hike–Pause$70K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$953K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $189 on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,228 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0xF80E74bC34e0C1BE6D4352D6eDEBB710E6602af8-1720119167013, with $1.1K on it, $4.6K lifetime profit over 128 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.