Who's betting on “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $140K traded all time
- Held now
- $47K by 148 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 84% 73 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 75 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 79¢ and No at 22¢, a 79% implied chance of Yes. $140K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
The smart money
84% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
Who holds it
148 wallets hold a position worth $47K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is simpleman, with $21K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is puravida, with $1.1K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,346 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $44K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $3.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$44K on it
- 1simpleman53% won of 1,036 · whale$21K+$91K lifetime
- 2balthazar53% won of 52,375 · whale$6.0K+$1.2M lifetime
- 3Z6rP9nX3Vq8K1m0% won of 1$4.6K−$11 lifetime
- 4HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$2.5K+$179K lifetime
- 5browne74% won of 337 · whale$2.4K+$55K lifetime
No$3.0K on it
- 1puravida64% won of 1,346 · whale$1.1K+$37K lifetime
- 2betwick56% won of 772 · whale$494+$604K lifetime
- 30x49F20662% won of 862$431−$41K lifetime
- 4just-bettor44% won of 1,405 · balanced$207+$3.0K lifetime
- 5Oddsman10143% won of 268$118−$4.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
4 more- Hike–Pause–Pause$155K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Other$35K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Hike–Hike–Hike$113K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Hike–Hike–Pause$70K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$942K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
148 wallets hold a position worth $47K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is simpleman, with $21K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,036 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is puravida, with $1.1K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 1,346 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 79¢ and No at 22¢, a 79% implied chance of Yes. $140K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.