Who's betting on “Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $33K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.2K by 102 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 46% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 43% 43 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 69¢ and No at 31¢, a 69% implied chance of Yes. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
46% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
Who holds it
102 wallets hold a position worth $6.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 100 of them. The largest Yes holder is Johnsansculotte, with $1.6K on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $136 on it, $378K lifetime loss over 53,556 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 58
- Money on it
- $5.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $393
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.8K on it
- 1Johnsansculotte56% won of 95$1.6K−$11K lifetime
- 20x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427162% won of 6,187 · whale$590+$64K lifetime
- 30xa894…53da83% won of 132 · balanced$488+$9.1K lifetime
- 4haouibao98% won of 90$439−$196 lifetime
- 5TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 482$428−$53K lifetime
No$393 on it
- 1Haradwaith51% won of 53,556$136−$378K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,167 · noise$49+$254K lifetime
- 3newmasterroshi70% won of 200 · balanced$43+$1.1K lifetime
- 4rocky4202552% won of 1,049 · whale$35+$193 lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 48,939$28−$50K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Bank of Brazil decision in November?
4 more- 25 bps decrease$45K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps decrease$15K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 25 bps increase$13K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps increase$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$917K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$323K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?"?
102 wallets hold a position worth $6.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 100 of them. The largest Yes holder is Johnsansculotte, with $1.6K on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $136 on it, $378K lifetime loss over 53,556 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 69¢ and No at 31¢, a 69% implied chance of Yes. $33K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 43% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.