Who's betting on “Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 62% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 61 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.5K by 57 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 1% 12 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 1% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
Who holds it
57 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is Johnsansculotte, with $11 on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is z13cc, with $1.1K on it, $1.8K lifetime loss over 15 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $60
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 93%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$60 on it
- 1Johnsansculotte56% won of 95$11−$11K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,759 · noise$8+$27K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,167 · noise$6+$254K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427162% won of 6,187 · whale$6+$64K lifetime
- 5MFS-00041% won of 314 · noise$6+$1.4K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1z13cc100% won of 15$1.1K−$1.8K lifetime
- 20x229A22F5414C3300d52C4Ce4305B6CF1938a3c6d-176800668101493% won of 14$139−$660 lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 48,939$109−$50K lifetime
- 4balabalababalabala76% won of 311$105−$58K lifetime
- 58578100% won of 26$20+$5 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Bank of Brazil decision in November?
4 more- 25 bps decrease$45K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- No Change$33K vol.Yes 69%No 31%Smart money split
- 25 bps increase$13K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps increase$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$917K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$323K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"?
57 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is Johnsansculotte, with $11 on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is z13cc, with $1.1K on it, $1.8K lifetime loss over 15 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 1% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 61 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 48 points. A week ago, Yes by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.