Who's betting on “Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 32 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $45K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.1K by 138 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 84 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 38% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
Who holds it
138 wallets hold a position worth $8.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 137 of them. The largest Yes holder is S4uron, with $816 on it, $9.6K lifetime profit over 108 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is Johnsansculotte, with $1.7K on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 85
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $4.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.8K on it
- 1S4uron57% won of 108 · balanced$816+$9.6K lifetime
- 2anonymoususer1073% won of 74 · balanced$390+$166 lifetime
- 3quantpp62% won of 39 · balanced$302+$321 lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427162% won of 6,174 · whale$244+$64K lifetime
- 5OilWizard52% won of 182$195−$7.0K lifetime
No$4.3K on it
- 1Johnsansculotte56% won of 95$1.7K−$11K lifetime
- 2theoaga56% won of 36 · noise$897+$2.8K lifetime
- 3SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,544$398−$8.5K lifetime
- 4rocky4202552% won of 1,049 · whale$251+$193 lifetime
- 5rspa51% won of 226$186−$9.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Bank of Brazil decision in November?
4 more- No Change$33K vol.Yes 69%No 31%Smart money split
- 50+ bps decrease$15K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 25 bps increase$13K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- 50+ bps increase$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.6M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 80%No 21%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$914K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$323K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"?
138 wallets hold a position worth $8.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 137 of them. The largest Yes holder is S4uron, with $816 on it, $9.6K lifetime profit over 108 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is Johnsansculotte, with $1.7K on it, $11K lifetime loss over 95 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $45K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.