Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 47 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $119K traded all time
- Held now
- $25K by 183 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 27% 75 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 108 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $119K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
27% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
Who holds it
183 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 183 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $303 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $8.7K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $784
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 108
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$784 on it
- 1bigdickprick44% won of 32$303−$41K lifetime
- 2pingentfan155% won of 441 · whale$48+$43K lifetime
- 3lissartter56% won of 2,997$42−$287K lifetime
- 4Andycjs9028% won of 130$42−$981 lifetime
- 5OverlookHotel14% won of 200$39−$65K lifetime
No$24K on it
- 1TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$8.7K+$1.8M lifetime
- 20xe617…f25190% won of 1,010$5.2K−$49K lifetime
- 3XAE12Archangel75% won of 1,080 · whale$2.7K+$222K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$1.5K+$334K lifetime
- 5Skaliz85% won of 208 · whale$968+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
6 more- 5.5%$227K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- 5.7%$128K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- 5.4%$88K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 5.2%$166K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.3%$39K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?"?
183 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 183 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $303 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $8.7K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $119K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
27% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.