Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $227K traded all time
- Held now
- $32K by 275 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 165 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 110 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
Who holds it
275 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 275 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $1.1K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $21K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 165
- Money on it
- $3.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 110
- Money on it
- $28K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.7K on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$1.1K+$203K lifetime
- 2k7X9mP2qW452% won of 327 · whale$348+$28K lifetime
- 3gt19751% won of 2,066 · whale$201+$35K lifetime
- 4HDGB65% won of 495 · whale$190+$74K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$154+$334K lifetime
No$28K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$21K+$313K lifetime
- 2AdjunctBias79% won of 53$2.1K−$56K lifetime
- 3Gambol-Riggins59% won of 236 · balanced$930+$19K lifetime
- 40x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$512−$8.4K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$407+$325K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
6 more- 5.7%$128K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- 6.0%$119K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- 5.4%$88K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 5.2%$166K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.3%$39K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"?
275 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 275 of them. The largest Yes holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $1.1K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $21K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.