Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $88K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 203 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 122 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 80 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $88K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
Who holds it
203 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 202 of them. The largest Yes holder is Leclerc04, with $535 on it, $3.7K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $5.8K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $203 on Yes.
- Holders
- 123
- Money on it
- $2.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 1 · $203
- Holders
- 80
- Money on it
- $9.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.6K on it
- 1Leclerc0450% won of 1,216 · balanced$535+$3.7K lifetime
- 2dave1234553% won of 211 · balanced$292+$4.7K lifetime
- 3cookedquail87% won of 90 · sniper$203+$25K lifetime
- 40x440ecB602d49B1799A4f1e0a4edF7452bf434907-176843807425262% won of 34 · balanced$179+$833 lifetime
- 5t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$152+$353 lifetime
No$9.3K on it
- 1TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$5.8K+$1.8M lifetime
- 2k7X9mP2qW452% won of 327 · whale$1.6K+$28K lifetime
- 3rip45% won of 225 · noise$616+$21K lifetime
- 40xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$290+$61K lifetime
- 5ggwellplayista82% won of 137$186−$385 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
6 more- 5.5%$227K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- 5.7%$128K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- 6.0%$119K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- 5.2%$166K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.3%$39K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?"?
203 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 202 of them. The largest Yes holder is Leclerc04, with $535 on it, $3.7K lifetime profit over 1,216 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $5.8K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $88K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.