Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 37 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $128K traded all time
- Held now
- $19K by 135 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 52% 83 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 52 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
52% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
Who holds it
135 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $294 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $7.6K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $1.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 52
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.0K on it
- 1bigdickprick44% won of 32$294−$41K lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$185+$61K lifetime
- 3dave1234553% won of 211 · balanced$63+$4.7K lifetime
- 4Juuless37% won of 35$42−$576 lifetime
- 5OverlookHotel14% won of 200$40−$65K lifetime
No$18K on it
- 1TheReturnOfDarthMaul60% won of 1,026 · whale$7.6K+$1.8M lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$2.2K+$334K lifetime
- 3ggwellplayista82% won of 137$1.3K−$385 lifetime
- 4k7X9mP2qW452% won of 327 · whale$963+$28K lifetime
- 5rip45% won of 225 · noise$945+$21K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
6 more- 5.5%$227K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- 6.0%$119K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- 5.4%$88K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 5.2%$166K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.3%$39K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?"?
135 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $294 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $7.6K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,026 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
52% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.