Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $30K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 75 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 67% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
Who holds it
75 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $589
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
8 more- ↓ $740$28K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- ↑ $790$24K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $800$18K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- ↓ $730$15K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $810$12K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- ↓ $710$12K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- ↓ $720$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $760$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?"?
75 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 75 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.