Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 58% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 47 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $28K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.6K by 80 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 47 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 12% 33 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 12% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
Who holds it
80 wallets hold a position worth $9.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them.
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $299
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $9.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
8 more- ↓ $750$30K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money split
- ↑ $790$24K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $800$18K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- ↓ $730$15K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- ↑ $810$12K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- ↓ $710$12K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- ↓ $720$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ↓ $760$16K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?"?
80 wallets hold a position worth $9.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 12% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.