Who's betting on “Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 76% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 55% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is rexcom, with $38 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 415 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is A1VENGO, with $593 on it, $996 lifetime loss over 20 markets (55% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $370 on No.
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $152
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $4.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 1 · $370
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$152 on it
- 1rexcom55% won of 415 · balanced$38+$11K lifetime
- 2leCommissaire55% won of 453 · whale$25+$104K lifetime
- 3DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$17+$260K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$13+$255K lifetime
- 5GreetingsPrograms57% won of 7$13−$160 lifetime
No$4.2K on it
- 1A1VENGO55% won of 20$593−$996 lifetime
- 2LetMeBeYourValentine79% won of 219 · balanced$582+$6.6K lifetime
- 3NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$435+$11K lifetime
- 4GabiFP88% won of 280 · sniper$370+$25K lifetime
- 5FoolingAround64% won of 100 · balanced$313+$6.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is rexcom, with $38 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 415 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is A1VENGO, with $593 on it, $996 lifetime loss over 20 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 55% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.