Who's betting on “Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $126K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $126K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
74% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
136 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsihkodiives, with $56 on it, $26K lifetime profit over 476 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is leqso0410, with $5.2K on it, $5.5K lifetime loss over 150 markets (79% won).
- Smart money share
- 74%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $154
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 100
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 87%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tsihkodiiveswhale | $56 | +$26K | 83% of 476 |
| 0x869Aa17ACb1Fb23CAC2e4ccaed589AE3aD82bd64-1774802364653 | $17 | -$28 | 17% of 6 |
| Peryperynoise | $16 | +$43K | 30% of 413 |
| 0x3af328BDb7E12Bed891F5B162C37F6C25d2d6214-1778933655688 | $11 | +$17 | 91% of 11 |
| Numitus1994 | $10 | -$26K | 48% of 12,923 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| leqso0410 | $5.2K | -$5.5K | 79% of 150 |
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $2.0K | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| OraculumNobiuswhale | $870 | +$8.4K | 99% of 2,205 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04whale | $561 | +$146K | 92% of 1,008 |
| Nardo99balanced | $515 | +$3.6K | 71% of 234 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Druzkhivka$338K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: No
- Kramatorsk$304K vol.Yes 12%No 89%Smart money: No
- Zaporizhia$226K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money split
- Sloviansk$193K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- Sumy$87K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Kherson$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.1M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?"?
136 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 136 of them. The largest Yes holder is tsihkodiives, with $56 on it, $26K lifetime profit over 476 markets (83% won). The largest No holder is leqso0410, with $5.2K on it, $5.5K lifetime loss over 150 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $126K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.