Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $118K traded all time
- Held now
- $49K by 140 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 83% 58 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 80 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 49¢ and No at 52¢, a 52% implied chance of No. $118K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
83% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
Who holds it
140 wallets hold a position worth $49K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $16K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $9.2K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $134 on No.
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $25K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $134
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$24K on it
- 1DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$16K+$260K lifetime
- 20x066Ffbc222c149F8Ec54FBA2589137cE37662E56-178222114943158% won of 43$2.3K−$7.4K lifetime
- 3mehanizator42% won of 530 · noise$1.9K+$6.1K lifetime
- 4Seriip48% won of 31 · noise$1.3K+$46 lifetime
- 5Suprasapiens59% won of 32$533−$645 lifetime
No$25K on it
- 1KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$9.2K+$274K lifetime
- 2TralaleloTralalala62% won of 814 · balanced$3.1K+$42K lifetime
- 3controls81% won of 832 · whale$2.3K+$51K lifetime
- 4GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$1.5K+$11K lifetime
- 5AChad58% won of 50 · balanced$1.4K+$3.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?"?
140 wallets hold a position worth $49K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $16K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is KrackenSruster, with $9.2K on it, $274K lifetime profit over 907 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 49¢ and No at 52¢, a 52% implied chance of No. $118K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.