Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $56K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 105 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 75% 51 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 54 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
75% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
Who holds it
105 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is tightpincer, with $115 on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 9 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is TralaleloTralalala, with $2.5K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 814 markets (62% won).
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $581
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$581 on it
- 1tightpincer100% won of 9$115+$2.2K lifetime
- 2Rybkaoi64% won of 231 · balanced$89+$12K lifetime
- 3DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$83+$260K lifetime
- 40x066Ffbc222c149F8Ec54FBA2589137cE37662E56-178222114943158% won of 43$53−$7.4K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$32+$334K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1TralaleloTralalala62% won of 814 · balanced$2.5K+$42K lifetime
- 2GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$2.4K+$11K lifetime
- 3controls81% won of 832 · whale$1.7K+$51K lifetime
- 4FoolingAround64% won of 100 · balanced$667+$6.8K lifetime
- 5ProxyOne58% won of 111$417−$816 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?"?
105 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is tightpincer, with $115 on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 9 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is TralaleloTralalala, with $2.5K on it, $42K lifetime profit over 814 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $56K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
75% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.