Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $67K traded all time
- Held now
- $19K by 123 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 77% 49 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 74 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
77% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
123 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $2.9K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is CompulsiveGambler, with $3.8K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (69% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $171 on No.
- Holders
- 49
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $171
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.4K on it
- 1DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$2.9K+$260K lifetime
- 2Suprasapiens59% won of 32$724−$645 lifetime
- 3Donkolo98% won of 320$224−$2.8K lifetime
- 4rexcom55% won of 415 · balanced$205+$11K lifetime
- 5PubgWithoutSaving74% won of 211 · balanced$183+$489 lifetime
No$13K on it
- 1CompulsiveGambler69% won of 1,049 · whale$3.8K+$74K lifetime
- 2KrackenSruster66% won of 907 · whale$2.6K+$274K lifetime
- 3Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$2.2K+$33K lifetime
- 4Voland677787% won of 15$542−$10K lifetime
- 50xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-178604115318879% won of 125$344−$137 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?"?
123 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $2.9K on it, $260K lifetime profit over 1,239 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is CompulsiveGambler, with $3.8K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 1,049 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 29¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
77% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.