Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 70% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $47K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.0K by 106 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 49% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 70% 70 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
49% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
106 wallets hold a position worth $8.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x066Ffbc222c149F8Ec54FBA2589137cE37662E56-1782221149431, with $126 on it, $7.4K lifetime loss over 43 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is controls, with $1.3K on it, $51K lifetime profit over 832 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $400
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 70
- Money on it
- $7.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$400 on it
- 10x066Ffbc222c149F8Ec54FBA2589137cE37662E56-178222114943158% won of 43$126−$7.4K lifetime
- 2tightpincer100% won of 9$70+$2.2K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,230 · noise$49+$254K lifetime
- 4mehanizator42% won of 530 · noise$41+$6.1K lifetime
- 5Herosquest54% won of 200$34−$1.4K lifetime
No$7.6K on it
- 1controls81% won of 832 · whale$1.3K+$51K lifetime
- 2ajaaja91% won of 192$950−$6.3K lifetime
- 3adenakoz130% won of 231 · noise$816+$11K lifetime
- 4GlockShoot76% won of 51 · balanced$776+$2.2K lifetime
- 5Rybkaoi64% won of 231 · balanced$630+$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?"?
106 wallets hold a position worth $8.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x066Ffbc222c149F8Ec54FBA2589137cE37662E56-1782221149431, with $126 on it, $7.4K lifetime loss over 43 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is controls, with $1.3K on it, $51K lifetime profit over 832 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $47K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
49% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.