Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $63K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
64% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
167 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 167 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $859 on it, $280K lifetime profit over 1,215 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $3.7K on it, $32K lifetime profit over 235 markets (66% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $228 on No.
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 100
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $228
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DumplingBMFwhale | $859 | +$280K | 69% of 1,215 |
| SadBenuabalanced | $413 | +$3.2K | 80% of 120 |
| mewmew1 | $248 | -$12K | 64% of 1,103 |
| Donkolo | $232 | -$2.9K | 98% of 315 |
| Haradwaith | $181 | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius7balanced | $3.7K | +$32K | 66% of 235 |
| GaioMariobalanced | $3.4K | +$11K | 73% of 222 |
| NiceDuckBrowhale | $1.7K | +$11K | 70% of 226 |
| AnonDaveDave | $1.4K | -$835 | 54% of 245 |
| JoeBlack01whale | $1.4K | +$89K | 65% of 1,022 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?"?
167 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 167 of them. The largest Yes holder is DumplingBMF, with $859 on it, $280K lifetime profit over 1,215 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $3.7K on it, $32K lifetime profit over 235 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $63K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.