Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $22K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 63 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 26 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 59 points.
Who holds it
63 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is firewalker923, with $428 on it, $521 lifetime profit over 246 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is controls, with $1.1K on it, $51K lifetime profit over 832 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $736
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$736 on it
- 1firewalker92385% won of 246 · balanced$428+$521 lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,247 · noise$78+$255K lifetime
- 3rexcom55% won of 415 · balanced$59+$11K lifetime
- 4leCommissaire55% won of 453 · whale$38+$104K lifetime
- 5bakayo33 - 993474% won of 407 · balanced$30+$5.5K lifetime
No$2.8K on it
- 1controls81% won of 832 · whale$1.1K+$51K lifetime
- 2cooldisplayname71% won of 73 · balanced$354+$2.2K lifetime
- 3Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$333+$33K lifetime
- 4Coldonn10183% won of 224$222−$3.3K lifetime
- 5OtaBenga61% won of 203 · balanced$177+$1.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?"?
63 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is firewalker923, with $428 on it, $521 lifetime profit over 246 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is controls, with $1.1K on it, $51K lifetime profit over 832 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $22K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 59 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.