Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 72% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $79K traded all time
- Held now
- $23K by 160 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 86 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 74 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $79K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
Who holds it
160 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 160 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rybkaoi, with $1.8K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 231 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $5.6K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 86
- Money on it
- $6.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 74
- Money on it
- $17K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.3K on it
- 1Rybkaoi64% won of 231 · balanced$1.8K+$12K lifetime
- 2DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$765+$260K lifetime
- 3PeterEriksson55% won of 220 · balanced$622+$7.0K lifetime
- 4Torin8144% won of 57$355−$501 lifetime
- 5dreadnothingatall32% won of 60$349−$232 lifetime
No$17K on it
- 1Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$5.6K+$33K lifetime
- 2lionkinglionkinglionking61% won of 118$2.5K−$15K lifetime
- 3flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$1.6K+$2.3K lifetime
- 4Goat852455% won of 201$936−$42K lifetime
- 50xD056D2E765630Ee61850a7c743A30E20D2E2F1be-176451277003187% won of 226 · grinder$737+$7.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
1 moreOther big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?"?
160 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 160 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rybkaoi, with $1.8K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 231 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $5.6K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $79K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.