Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $97K traded all time
- Held now
- $23K by 148 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 83% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 82% 91 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $97K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
83% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
148 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rybkaoi, with $5.8K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 231 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $1.6K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $154 on No.
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 91
- Money on it
- $8.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $154
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$15K on it
- 1Rybkaoi64% won of 231 · balanced$5.8K+$12K lifetime
- 2PeterEriksson55% won of 220 · balanced$2.4K+$7.0K lifetime
- 3mehanizator42% won of 530 · noise$2.1K+$6.1K lifetime
- 4DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$1.1K+$260K lifetime
- 5nero258982% won of 207$1.1K−$49K lifetime
No$8.1K on it
- 1flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$1.6K+$2.3K lifetime
- 2NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$1.1K+$11K lifetime
- 3leCommissaire55% won of 453 · whale$772+$104K lifetime
- 4GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$525+$11K lifetime
- 5Voland677787% won of 15$407−$10K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?"?
148 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 148 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rybkaoi, with $5.8K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 231 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $1.6K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 65¢ and No at 35¢, a 65% implied chance of Yes. $97K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.