Who's betting on “Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $77K traded all time
- Held now
- $18K by 104 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 96% 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 48 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 58¢ and No at 42¢, a 58% implied chance of Yes. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
96% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
104 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc, with $4.2K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 236 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $3.1K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $5.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$12K on it
- 10xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc50% won of 236 · whale$4.2K+$12K lifetime
- 2Roflan-ludoman57% won of 1,034 · whale$2.2K+$202K lifetime
- 3gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$713+$6.7K lifetime
- 4sqaolkytrpoi53% won of 240 · whale$658+$56K lifetime
- 5omsode71% won of 158 · balanced$585+$522 lifetime
No$5.5K on it
- 1flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$3.1K+$2.3K lifetime
- 22026060144% won of 383$959−$18K lifetime
- 3GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$493+$290K lifetime
- 40xnapalm69% won of 355 · balanced$239+$3.8K lifetime
- 5Mst-br85% won of 273 · balanced$156+$123 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?"?
104 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc, with $4.2K on it, $12K lifetime profit over 236 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $3.1K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 58¢ and No at 42¢, a 58% implied chance of Yes. $77K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
96% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.