Who's betting on “Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 60 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $65K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.5K by 139 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 22% 58 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 82% 80 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
22% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 58 points. A week ago, No by 57 points.
Who holds it
139 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is bnetopt, with $45 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 235 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is 57284910, with $1.9K on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 25 markets (88% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $197
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 80
- Money on it
- $5.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$197 on it
- 1bnetopt39% won of 235$45−$41K lifetime
- 20x13d6345D463242CF90C4AA5B76DEEBdd92e05cc7-176278361567684% won of 49$30−$8.1K lifetime
- 30x79bd452b22464625E899E31d42D2c3600fb0CF32-17797841739410% won of 1$19−$20 lifetime
- 40x7078…2d23no record yet$19
- 5Eltriooteur71% won of 24$10−$42 lifetime
No$5.3K on it
- 15728491088% won of 25 · balanced$1.9K+$2.9K lifetime
- 2DontTrustMe87% won of 125 · balanced$499+$9.9K lifetime
- 30xc33A02947Eb21Fc4A179D28f7C71AA1826AcCc98-176780611694288% won of 592$317−$405 lifetime
- 4tilchi96% won of 165 · balanced$255+$1.2K lifetime
- 5archaic86% won of 1,459 · whale$255+$197K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?"?
139 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 138 of them. The largest Yes holder is bnetopt, with $45 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 235 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is 57284910, with $1.9K on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 25 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
22% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 60 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 58 points. A week ago, No by 57 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.