Who's betting on “Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $51K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 92 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 53% 35 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
Who holds it
92 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $2.3K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is RememberAmalek, with $637 on it, $819K lifetime profit over 1,128 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $10.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10.0K on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$2.3K−$4.7M lifetime
- 2HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$1.2K+$325K lifetime
- 3Cando867% won of 12$1.1K+$7.2K lifetime
- 4wienerdog56% won of 329 · whale$1.1K+$21K lifetime
- 51walrus60% won of 1,303 · whale$1.0K+$38K lifetime
No$1.8K on it
- 1RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$637+$819K lifetime
- 274-7541% won of 94$414−$2.5K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$236−$377K lifetime
- 4macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$100−$7.8K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$88+$255K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in New Zealand legislative election winner?
3 more- Labour Party$31K vol.Yes 34%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- Te Pāti Māori$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Green Party$10K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?"?
92 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 92 of them. The largest Yes holder is anoin123, with $2.3K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is RememberAmalek, with $637 on it, $819K lifetime profit over 1,128 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $51K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.