Who's betting on “Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $262K traded all time
- Held now
- $120K by 225 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 75 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 149 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $262K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
Who holds it
225 wallets hold a position worth $120K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is lymphnatic, with $2.9K on it, $7.4K lifetime profit over 4 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is QMG-SCALAR, with $19K on it, $5.0K lifetime profit over 216 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $8.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 150
- Money on it
- $112K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.7K on it
- 1lymphnatic100% won of 4$2.9K+$7.4K lifetime
- 2Kris-Future93% won of 54 · balanced$1.4K+$23K lifetime
- 30x023490fc5c34e533a1b088e7f6325324cbfd1533-1792622773244no record yet$943−$4 lifetime
- 4gods-eye59% won of 32 · balanced$703+$12K lifetime
- 5Anon2Anon27% won of 15$655−$8.7K lifetime
No$112K on it
- 1QMG-SCALAR70% won of 216 · whale$19K+$5.0K lifetime
- 2QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$19K+$57K lifetime
- 3DEGENKHAN74% won of 1,147 · whale$15K+$104K lifetime
- 4archaic86% won of 1,473 · whale$7.7K+$197K lifetime
- 5DFK81% won of 771 · whale$6.8K+$42K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?"?
225 wallets hold a position worth $120K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is lymphnatic, with $2.9K on it, $7.4K lifetime profit over 4 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is QMG-SCALAR, with $19K on it, $5.0K lifetime profit over 216 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $262K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 19 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.